ding slump due

to drop in migration

Young singles keeping condo market on track

EVEN with a jump in international immigration, experts think the slump in single-family home building in B.C. will continue.

With only 690 singles starts and 1,262 mal- tiple family starts recorded for B.C. in June, Canada Mortgage ousing Corporation (CMHC) doesn’t believe the housing market will rebound this

Overall housing starts activity is down 22% this year compared to last year. B.C. regional economist Charles King says that CMHC will have no other choice but to lower the B.C. housing starts forecast of 25,890 iater this sum- mer and the revision could be substantial.

He said if the housing market was going to tum around it would have occurred by now, The only good news is that condominium developers in some niche matkets are doing well and this is keeping the :nultiple family fore- cast on track.

“The singles starts are extremely low, below our forecast for the year,” says King

The main reason tor the drop in starts is migration-related with two of the three prima- ry groups that hive moved to B.C. cither stay- ing put or moving elsewhere.

ue to stronger job opportunities in Ontario and Alberta, fewer families are moving to B.C.’ s main urban centres.

As well, retirees, which have been the main-

tay in smaller housing markets orn Vancouver Island and*the Interior, consider B.C. just too expensive,

Overall, in the first quarter of 1998 B.C. had a net loss of 3,555 people to other provinces. This leaves international immigrants which are still coming in big numbers: abour 8,500 in the first quarter of 1998,” reports King.

The more recent change is with internation-

al immigrants that scem to preter larger condas over single family homes. The preferred loca- tion for international immigrants ino the Vancouver area is near Metrotown, Downtown and the Vancouver airport,” savs King.

But young people moving to B.C. for lifestyle are sall the driving force behind inter- provincial migration. People coming take jobs in the fast-paced service sector are often young, single and look to rent or buy small condos.

These people have kept the cordo market alive in markets close to jobs. Conversely, sub- urban condo markets are doing poorly with fewer families coming to B.C. there is less demand for single family homes.” conchides King.

The future does hold promise.

“There is litle doubt that with the aging of

the population and a weak dollar that makes Canadians on fixed incomes paupers in the USS., the retirement market will revive in the near future. B.C. will be the oniy affordable place in North America that offees great lifestvle for Canadians to retire.

Whar you will begin to notice is that as the Alberta and Ontario housing markets pick up steam, people will have more home equity to transfer into the B.C. market as they reure. But this may be a couple years away,” adds King

CMHC does see some bright light. B.C. hammers are still busy in some markets. Not only is there is a tremendous amount of work in doing renovations, but industrial, commercial and hotel development are also doing well. It's an interesting time: New housing construction slows down while renovation and commercial development picks up,” concludes King.

CMHC turecasts the value of B.C. bui'ding permit activity to be up 6% this vear, over the 35.8 billion mark.

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