6 - Wednesday, June 5, 1985 - North Shore News Editorial Page News Viewpoint ‘War’ games s the world ready yet for international ] competition in mass-appeal sports? The shameful tragedy in the Brussels stadium — where mad-dog British soccer fans caused the death of nearly 40 people, almost all of them Italians — suggests the answer may be ‘‘No.”” It’s significant that soccer is presently the ONLY mass-appeal sport involving regular contests between countries whose histories are pockmarked by bitter and bloody wars with one another. The theory that international soccer today has become a substitute for yesterday's battlefields among the likes of the ignorant and drunken louts responsible for Britain's disgrace is at least a plausible one. The Olympics are also rife with nationalist rivalries and politics. And though strictly polic- ed and held only at lengthy intervals, even the Olympics have been marred by violence and death. Football, hockey and baseball, on the other hand, are primarily North American rather than truly international sperts — confined mainly to two English-speaking countries, Canada and the U.S., sharing a peaceful com- mon heritage and separated by the world’s longest undefended border. Meanwhile, inter- national sports of lesser popular appea!, such as tennis and golf, draw much smaller crowds of fans who normally behave in a restrained and civilized manner. Possibly because of a more genuine interest in the game itself. Maybe the world’s older nations will first have to bury their battle-scarred past before tens of thousands of their citizens can safely meet each other in their giant sport stadiums. gf 7 Don't let up! teve Fonyo, like Terry Fox, has raised millions for cancer research, but the need continues — not only to conquer cancer but also hundreds of other cripplers: multiple ‘sclerosis, cystic fibrosis, Alzheimer’s disease, “heart disease, diabetes, spinal cord injuries, . genetic defects. The key to winning these bat- - tles Jies in one word. Money. We mustn’t let ~ the end of Steve’s journey signal any let-up in donations to medical research. Display Advertising 980-0511 Classified Advertising 986-6222 Newsroom 985-2131 Circulation : . Subscriptions 985-2131 1139 Lonsdale Ave., North Vancouver, B.C. V7M 2H4 Publisher Peter Speck General Manager Roger McAlee Operations Manager Berni Hilliard Marketing Director Advertising Director - Sales Bob Graham Oave Jenneson Circulation Director Advertising Director - Admin. Bill McGown Mike Goodsell Production Director Editor-in-Chief Chris Johnson Noel Wright Photography Manager Classified Manager Testy Peters Val Stephenson North Shore News, founded in 1969 as an independent suburban newspaper and quatitied under Schedule tll, Part 11, Paragraph Il of the Excise Tax Act. ts published each Wednesday, Friday and Sunday by North Shore Free Press Lid. ang distnbuted to every door on the Nonh Shore. Second Class Mail Registialion Number 3885. Entire contents © 1985 North Shore Free Press Ltd. Ail rights reserved. Subscriptions, North and West Vancouver, $25, per yeas. Mailing rates available on request. No responsibility accepted for unsolicied matenal inctucing manuscripts and pictures which should be accompanied by a stamped. addressed envelope. Member of the B.C. Press Council b- 55,770 (average, Wednesday SDA DIVISION Friday & Sunday) THIS PAPER IS RECYCLABLE 986-1337 . Knew-alls the real problem sound decisions based on facts, you say? In S O YOUR CALM, LOGICAL MIND makes SESS that case, avoid Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. They'll upset you a lot. The two professors of psychology — Kahneman at UBC, Tversky at Stanford — have.been collaborating for 17 years on the study of decision-making behavior. Their findings, described at length by Kevin McKean in this month’s issue of the science magazine DISCOVER, could blow your calm, logical mind to shreds. . They have challenged the fundamental reliabiuty of human reason. They claim that ‘‘even wken we're trying to be cold- ly logical, we give radically different answers to-the same problem when it's posed in a slightly different way.’’ Our lack of true rationality results from short cuts the mind ~ takes in weighing the com- plicated odds of the decision- making process. Take ‘the example of Western strategy against the Russians, says Tversky. It's based on assumptions of what the Russians are likely to vo, how we'll react, how they'll respond, and so on. Suppose there are seven such assumptions, each with a 90 per chance of being tight. The final scenario — -9X.9X,9%.9xX.9x.9x.9 would have a mere 47.8 per cent chance of being right. Try it for yourself on your pocket calculator. Since many personal deci- sions rely on a similar series of pretty individual assump- tions, the math is scary. Just three assumptions, each 80 per ceni right, give your final decision only just over an even (51.2 per cent) chance of being the wisest. Surveys by the profs have led to another fascinating conclusion, People tend to accept greater risks to avoid a Joss than to make a gain. It all depends on how you put the question. Asked to choose between an assured gain of $3,000 and an 80 per cent chance of win- ning $4,000 with a 20 per cent chance of winning nothing, most people plumped for the assured $3,000. But when the choice was between an assured LOSS of LETTER OF THE DAY Budget reveals tack of leadership Dear Editor: Messrs. Mulroney and Wilson with 211 seats bring in their first and belated first budget. And what do we have? Undoubtably, there is a tax increase for the ‘middle’ class. And, true to course, breaks for the ‘better than middle’ class. The ‘poor’ take some but not generally unmanugeable battle dam- age. And all based on the hope and a prayer that the small business sector will create jobs — without any regional or national direc- tion and objectives. Will this work? maybe and maybe not. What the budget shows is either (1) Mulroney's ‘love in’ won't let Wilson do what he really believes (do a ‘Bennett’) or (2) they don’t Well, focus $3,000 and an 80 per cent chance of losing $4,000 with a 20 per cent chance of losing nothing, nine out of 10 of the respondents went for the slim I-in-5 chance of hanging on to everything. So much for the en- trepreneurial spirit being wooed by Finance Minister Wilson in his budget. know what to do; or (3) some combination of the above. The third is probably the closest to the truth. If deficit reduction, job creation, and smail business is the best way to go, then the large corporate tax holi- days of the last years should be charged with interest 1% above prime for debt reduc- tion, and specific job cre- ation should be coupled with The two researchers also exploded the hallowed myth of ‘streak shooting’? in basketball after being assured by Philadelphia 76 players that a shot was 25 per cent more likely after a hit than after a miss. Not true. A comprehensive study of the scoring patterns of the 76ers and three other top U.S. teams showed they were six per cent more likely to score after. a miss. Ran- dom sequences, Tversky points out, often contain streaks, simply by the laws of probabitity, The DISCOVER article cites a dozen other case histories by the profs which are calculated to destroy any remaining faith you have in your own judgement. But even though ‘‘you shouldn't be very confident of your cHoices,’’ they advise you not to despair. Tversky sums it up this way: “It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what is go- ing on.”* Dead right, professor. It’s the know-it-alls who are our REAL problem! breaks for smail business. In other words real direction should accompany the pretty rhetoric and showmanship. Strong leadership could do more with 211 seats. Real direction is what the country ‘wants, Mr. Mulroney, not a wing and a prayer and photo opportunities. Richard Blackburn North Vancouver