§ — Sunday, December 13, 1998 ~ North Shore News nmorth shore news VIEWPOINT Feed the need HEY’RE not using the word “crisis” just yet, but the North Shore Christmas Bureau is well short of providing for North Shore families in need this holiday season. As of last week, the North Shore Family Services program still had 100 families without sponsors, a sit- uation described by a bureau spokes- woman as the worst she’s ever seen. Typically, the bureau delivers ham- pers containing food, toys and gifts to over 900 families and 1,406 chil- dren on the North Shore each year. The strength of the program has always been its North Shore roots — unlike donations made to a big multi-national charity organization, 100% of all monies and gifts donated to the Christmas Bureau stay on the donations go towards the bureau’s administration. The sag in donations this season could be caused by various reasons, uncertainty over the economy being pre-eminent. One thing the shortfall is not related to is the kind heartedness and generosity of North Shore citizens. As noted in last Wednesday’s News, the three richest Saivation Army ket- tle coilection points in the Lower Mainland last Christmas season were on the North Shore. The Christmas Bureau's difficulty in meeting its goal this holiday sea- son is most likely due to people being unaware of the need. Well, consider yourself aware. To help your North Shore neigh- bours in need, calf the Christmas Bureau at 984-9627. North Shore. Likewise, none of the “This area is called Grouse Woods because of the lovely trees surrounding it — not Grouse Industrial Estates.” Local residents association president Mike Murphy, commenting on Greater Vancouver Regional District’s plans tor major reconstruction of the Cleveland Dam over the next two to four years. (From a Dec. 6 News story.) oo9o0 “First of ail I spotted the one with no meat on it and after that I was watching for human heads.” North Vancouver resident Jackie Swanson, on coming face to snout with a deer head while walking her dog along the eastern shore of LynmaGscek. (From a Dec. 6 News story.) teen aag0 “How many times does the merry-go-round? Isn’t it ironic that, of all the material that goes through the clerk’s office, the one item that she cannot seem to process is the Cuff report?” West Vancouver Chamber of Commerce president John Clark, on the further delays in processing requests to release an unedited version of the Cut review into the operation of West Vancouver district hall. (From a Dec. 4 News story.) oo0aq “I will never forget a hemlock for as long as I live. I should be able telf a hemlock from at least 300 yards.” Doug MacKay-Dunn after a tree hit his house during a recent vicious wind storm. (From a Dec. 2 News story.) oaqg “What does prompt a segment of our society to react in such a mean-spirited way? One wouldn’t think the scouting movement or any member of our North Shore community could possibly have this sort of enemy.” Rocky Rocksborough-Smith, Scouts Canada deputy regional commissioner for the Vancouver-Coast region, after vandals destroyed a $41,000 Scouts Canada shelter on the west bank of Lynn Creek by rolling a stolen vehicle into it and setting it ablaze. (From a Nov. 29 News story.) Nocth Shore Mews, founded i 1969 as an. independent Suburban newspapet and quaktied indet Schedule 111, Paragraph 111 of the Excise Tax Act, is pubkshed each Wednesday, Frday and Sunday by North Sho: 2 free Press Ltd. and distntuted to every door on the North ‘Shore. Canada Fost Canadian Pubscafions Masi ‘Sates Froduct Agreement No. 0087238. Barbara Distribution Manager 986-1337 (124) Creative Services Manager 985-2131 (127) 61,582 [average circutahon, Wednesday, Friday & Sunday) Election HAVE polls and pollsters become enemies of democracy? We'll doubtless be hearing from an outraged Angus Reid et al for even daring to raise the question! Still, somebody must ask, following the sur- prise result of the Nov. 30 Quebec election — tor which all polls except one forecast a Parti Quebecois landslide. In fact, Jean Charest’s Liberals at 44% won the popular vote over Lucien Bouchard’s PQ with 43%. Not that it did much for Jean. In terms of National Assembly seats the Liberals ended up with the same 34% to the PQ.s 58% as before. This illustrates just one of the prob- lems with election campaign polling. If the purpose of your head count is to find out what percentage of the population preters Coca Cola to Pepsi —- or vice versa — you may come up With a reason- ably accurate answer. But under our first-past-the-post elec- toral system traditional opinion polls, based on the overall popular vore, can seldom give any derailed picture of final scats in the legislature or parliament. That can only be tallied with any degree of accuracy by simultancous polls of every individual riding — a costly, time-con- suming and largely impractical process during a hectic four to five-week cam- paige. There are at least four other factors PETER SPECK Gee Dhaliwal Publisher Hanan Resources Manager 2131 (101) 985-2131 (17) Torry Peters Photography Managet 9885-2131 (160) Valerie Staphenson Classified Manager 986-6222 (202) Entise contents © 1997 North Shore Free Press Ltd. All rights reserved. QOOKAAY! . LETS SEE HOW LONG YOU LAST THIS TIME! that clearly affect the statistical accuracy of election campaign polling. One is the growing reluctance — noted by Angus Reid himself in a recent radio interview — of some potential respondents approached by phone ii i to participate at all. Wright A final “sample” of 500 may well start with ini- tial calls co 1,000 peo- ple. How would the non-cooperative 500 eventually vote? Much, say the polling experts, also depends on how specific ques- tions are framed. For example: “Will you vote PQ, Liberal or ‘other?” could produce quite a different result from: “If the clection were held today and you were forced by law to vote, which party would you choose?” Another point often glossed over is, of course, the accuracy limits of polls — a stock claim being “accurate to 4% either way, 19 times out of 20”. But that means a party polling, say, 48% may actually be supported by anywhere trom 44% to 52% of the voters. Even 19 times that could still be the spread between victory and defeat — and what if this just happened to be the 20th time? The final problem with election polls is simply the instinctive desire of many people — especially those with little me or urge to study candidates or issues too deeply — to be “on the winning side.” So if the pollsters repeatedly tell such vor- ers whom or what they perceive to be “winning,” at least some of the latter may tend to cast their ballots accordingly on hither and yon Maber> kno LPP TIGZ a AeA wl TAN NTA ot ISG LOA VR polls — ‘you never know! election day. In short, “winners” picked in advance by the pollsters can become a self-fuliilling prophecy. Luckily for the pollsters, the extent to which their daily contributions to an elec- tion campaign sway the eventual resules can never be measured. But common sense suggests at cast the possibility that the same campaign — conducted poll- free, leaving voters to be influenced solely by the messages of the various parties and candidates — might produce quite differ- ent final figures. Short of the unthinkabie in a free, democratic society — i.c., banning all election campaign polls — we can never be certain, of course. Are competitive palls, flooding an election campaign period with all their obvious statistical tlaws, a corruption of the democratic process — o1, alternative- ly, a fegitimate part of i? Put that one in the Unanswered-Questions-For-Future- Pondering file! Meanwhile, it’s amazing how close the odd poll sometimes comes to the popular vote (if not the distribution of seats). Are some polls just better than others? Or do some fit the odd jackpot the way thos« 6/49 Lotto ads urge us to bet — on any old set of numbers, because “You never know ...”? Qga0 MANY HAPPY RETURNS of Tuesday, Dec. 15, to West Van Kiwanian Don Waddell. ogaa WRIGHT OR WRONG: If everything seems to be coming your way, you're in the wrong lane. LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters must include your name, full address & telephone number. VIA e-mail: trenshaw @ direct.ca Compt Managing Editor 985-2131 (116) Gail Sneigrove Acting Display Manager General Office Manager 985-2131 (105} Internet- http:/faunw.nsnews.com Promotions Manager 985-2131 (213) 980-0511 (397) & Maln Office Fax Michael Becker - News Etlitor 985-2531 (114) Andrew MeCredia - Sports/Community Editor 985-2131 (147) The Worth Shore Hews is published by Worth Shore Free Press Ltd., Publisher Peter Speck, from 1139 Lonsdale Avenue Marth Vancouver, B.C., V7M 2H4