REAL ESTATE
CMHC forecasts uptrend

NEWS photo Cindy Goodman

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TOTAL NATIONAL hous-
ing starts are forecast to
reach 166,000 units this year
and to increase by 7.8% to
179,000 units in 1993,
Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation has
reported in its fourth-
quarter National Housing
Outlook.

“Market activity will im-
prove due to low interes:
rates and the government’s
home ownership programs,
but the increase will be
moderated by the gradual
recovery of both job mar-
kets and the economy,’” ¢x-
plained Gilles Proulx, chief
economist of CMHC's
Market Analysis Centre.

“Following their recent
hike, interest rates are ex-
pected to return to lower

Friday, December 4, 1992 - North Shore News - 77

levels over the next few
menths. The net result being
a minimal and temporary
impact on housing markets
in 1992 and 1993,"’ added
Proulx,

Construction of | single-
detached dwellings is ex-
pected to rise from 89,000
units this year to 102,000
units in 1993, an increase of
14.6%. Multiple starts are
expected to settle at 77,000.

Activity leaders this year
are British Columbia and
the Prairies with construc-
tion starts up more than
20% in alt four provinces.
At the same time, starts are
expected to drop by more
than 10% in Quebec, Nova
Scotia and Newfoundland.

In 1993, improving
manufacturing sectors will

lift activity in Ontario,
Quebec and Manitoba.
Newfoundland and Nova
Scotia markets are also ex-
pected to bounce back from
their current drop. Other
provinces will show smaller
increases except for Saskat-
chewan and Alberta where
declines are expected. Brit-
ish Columbia starts are ex-
pected to be up only slowly
due to production con-
straints.

In line with trends on the
construction market, resale
activity is expected to show
moderate growth until the
end of next year. Sales of
existing homes are expected
to rise by around 6% this
year and a further 4% in
1993,

Housing starts lower in October

NATIGNAL HOUSING
starts fell 11% in October to
a seasonally adjusted annual
rate (SAAR) of 162,000
units from the revised
September {evel of 182,000
units SAAR, reported
Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation.

Urban single-detached
starts increased slightly to
73,000 units SAAR, while
urban multiple starts declin-
ed 22% to 61,000 units
SAAR.

The October results were
mainly due to lower starts
of social housing apartments
in Ontario, single-detached
dwellings and condominium
apartments in British Col-

umbia, and semi-detached
dwellings and row houses in
Quebec.

“The decline was concen-
trated in multiples following
their jump in September,’’
said Gilles Proulx, chief
economist at CMHC’s
Market Analysis Centre.
“This is not surprising since
multiple starts tend to be
volatile with monthly ups
and downs.”

“Beyond the monthly
changes, housing activity
has been holding steady
over the fast several
months,” said Proulx. ‘‘So
far, the recent hike in inter-
est rates has not had a
noticeable impact.”’

Ontario starts in urban

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areas dropped to 42,000
units from 51,000 units in
September, while B.C. starts
were at 32,000 units, down
from 40,000 units. In
Quebec, urban starts inched
down to 28,000 from 30,000
units SAAR.

Alberta offered a partial
offset to the declines as
starts jumped from 14,000
to 18,000 units SAAR.
Construction of all types of
units rose on a seasonally
adjusted basis.

Activity also rose in Nova
Scotia, while it dropped
marginally in Manitoba and
Saskatchewan. Starts were
the same in New Brunswick,
Newfoundland and Prince
Edward Island.

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