4 - Sunday, July 8, 1990 - North Shore News Bos HUNTER WHEN WE think about the Greenhouse Effect, most of us tend to focus on likely atmospheric and climatic changes, which could produce droughts, famines, super-hurricanes, or, in some places, such as the West Coast, possible year- round torrential rains. Perhaps not as well appreciated is the impact a rapid increase in global temperature would have on the sea level itself, which would have a dramatic impact on people living along the coastlines, such as the folks in deltas like Richmond and Surrey, or anybody with low- lying waterfront property along the North Shore. The federal Department of Energy, Mines and Resources has just published a booklet that takes a serious look at this particular aspect of global warming. M. uch of the West End could be under water. Kitsilano Beach and Spanish Banks would be memories.’’ 2 Noting that Canada has the longest coastline in the world, amounting to 250,000 kilometres, and therefore we ought to be more worried about it than landlocked nations, scientists working for the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) warn that the rate of sea-level rises in some areas could increase substantially over the next few decades. The main contributing factor would be tremendous amounts of water created by melting glaciers and polar icecaps. Rising temperatures would cause them to change from their crystalline form into liquid. One group of scientists in the U.S. argues that by the year 2075, sea levels could, as a result, have tisen by as much as 213 cm, al- though the sea-level change could amount to as little as 38 cm. The *‘most likely’’ change, they suggest, would be in the neighborhood of between 9! and 137 cm. Such a development would mean that my kids, in their old age, would certainly not be able to walk along Ambleside Beach. They would be able to go diving there instead. Much of the West End could be under water. Kitsilano Beach and Spanish Banks would be memo- ries. In all these scenarios we have to keep in mind the fact that no one knows for sure what will happen, since the more we come to under- stand about nature, the more complicated is the picture that emerges. Increased temperatures might result in the formation of gigantic seaborne algae blooms, which could act as a carbon sink, absor- bing excess carbon dioxide, while at the same time, drier soil might lead to the release of massive amounts of methane stored in the ground, which, in turn, would in- crease the amount of greenhouse gases, cither cancelling out the ab- sorption by algae, balancing it, or creating yet some other unex- pected side-effect. One theory holds that warmer temperatures could result in more open water in the Arctic, leading to a greater amount of snow fall- ing on the Baffin icecap, causing the icecap to expand, which would result in a lowering of sea levels. Take your pick of scenarios. The jury will be out for a while. All the scientists at the Geologi- cal Survey can say for sure is that some sort of major transforma- tion is in the works, and that ‘dull’ isn’t the word for our col- lective future. They subscribe mainly, howev- er, to the view that sea levels will be going up, not down, although the fate of inland freshwater lakes is seen as being quite different. Many of them are already starting to dry up, especially on the Prairies. So far as the oceans are con- cerned, on top of the very rea! possibility of melting icecaps and glaciers, there are two other fac- tors to consider, GSC scientists note. Rising global temperatures would mean warmer ocean waters. Warmer waters would expand, which would accelerate the rate at which sea levels would rise. Also, the land itself is still dropping in some places and lif- ting in others in response to the last Ice Age. The areas of the Adantic and Pacific are settling. Regions where the land is sinking are obviously at greater risk as the sea level rises than other, more stable areas. The GSC scientists write: “Depending on the extent of local development, this could result in extensive property dam- age or destruction and disrupt transportation networks and municipal services. In extreme cases, it could permanently alter coastal geography and lifestyles.”’ According to John Shaw, a scientist at the Geoscience Centre in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, **Ca- nadians should be asking how we can ensure that coastal com- munities are prepared for global sea-level rise. How can we manage our coasts effectively with the rates of sea-level rise occurring today and expected in the future?’’ Already, he says, high tides and storm-driven waves on the Atlan- tic coast are causing extensive flooding and property damage. A study done by Environment Canada in St. John, New Brunswick, showed that a rise of even one metre would inundate sewers and industrial treatment facilities, flood residential arcas, power plants, wharves, roads and rails. It would also threaten farmlands, as well as cutting off the Trans Canada Highway. 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