ve A22 - - Wednesday, December 2, 1981 - North Shore News DISARMAMENT TALKS By BARRY JAMES GENEVA, Switzerland (UPI)—‘‘Disarmament talks,"" the newspaper Pravda said recently, “are not a game of poker.” Chess would be a better’ analogy for the. U.S.-Soviét talks on limiting nuclear weapons in Europe, which began in Geneva Monday. In chess, as in superpower arms bargaining, what counts is not intentions but capabilities — pieces on the board, their value, their mobility. In both “games,” the players have to think dozens of moves ahead while striving not to make any mistakes in the move that's under way. Both sides have started with opening gambits to be developed in coming months. President Reagan has told the Russians: You scrap your intermediate-range missiles aimed at Western Europe and we will cancel our plans to deploy coun- terbalancing missiles in Europe a couple of years from now. Brezhnev has replied: You cancel your deployment plans and we will freeze the arms we've got, and perhaps even remove “hundreds” of weapons systems as a gesture of good will. Both sides have declared their readiness to achieve an agreement. But however good their imtentions or strong their political resolve, it will be their respective Strategic analysts and military experts armed with computer forecasts — who probably will determine the outcome of the negotiations. The negotiators, who met in a full session for the first time on Tuesday, face an uphill struggle to overcome the sheer complexity of the subject. yange nuclear The first problem is to decide what weapons to include in the talks. The Soviet Union wants to include ali the medium- means in Western Europe capable of _ Striking its territory. That includes not only American aircraft and submarines, but also the French and British independent nuclear forces. The United States argues this would be impossibly complicated and that it would be better to start by talking about a pact to limit intermediate missiles. It might then be possible to move on to negotiations about the thousands of other nuclear weapons on European soil. The next problem is geography. Even if the Soviet Union agreed to move its SS-20 missiles out of the Eurpoean part of the country and base them in Western Siberia, every European capital except Lisbon would continue to be within their range. Reagan insisted’ the Soviets destroy its missiles rather than merely move them back. But a Soviet decision to withdraw its missiles behind the Urals might have a powerful appeal to the European peace movement, and make it correspondingly more difficult for the United States to deploy its Pershing II and Cruise missiles in Western Europe. If the two sides can eventually strike a balance on medium-range weapons, they will then run up against one of the toughest problems of all. 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