“REAL ESTATE Total housing starts down in the province FEBRUARY HOUSING starts are lower than those in January/in Urban B.C., ac- cording /to a recent study by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The/ downtrend which began/ in September 1987 continues. Within ithe next three / months the trend will ‘cease'its decline. / Starts totalled 1,326 units during February, down from 1,470 units in. January. Compared to one year ago starts are up 3 per cent. Ona year-to-date basis, urban B, Cc. Starts are up 4 per cent 19 2,79. units. from 2,692 units last year. The year- ver-year | comparisons | miss the recent down trend. , | February's decline occurs jargely in three centres. Stars in Kelowna are’ down from 145 to 34 units, Van- / couver from 1,046 to 971. / units, and-Matsqui from 145 to 59 units. Several centres | recorded higher. starts. Victoria starts’ are up ‘from 66 to 154 units. Starts. in. Penticton are higher from 8 /to 33 units. Other centres with ‘increases have smaller gains. The composition of Feb- " puary’s starts is more single’ detached and fewer multipies Starts over January. Single / detached: starts are’ up from’ 746° to’. 776 units, while multiples starts are down from 725 to 550 units, Mortgage rates continue to edge down which .will ultiinately result in higher starts. The average three- year term rate is down to | 10.8 per cent from [{ per cent in- February and 11.23 percentin January. | At its recent peak it was 11.48 per cent last October. The beneficial impact of these lower rates has yet ‘to show up in starts. i A lag usually exists ‘be- tween a change in mortgage rates and a change in starts. With prospects for : addi- tional casing in rates /good and other demand factors favorable, a turnaround in the starts trend is near! Single detached starts are up moderately ‘in February over last month [and are ex- pected to rise by miore in March. The spring building season is beginning. Single detached; starts picked up slightly from 746 units in: January to 716 units - in February. Adjusting for: seasonal variation, starts are little changed from ’, ,043 to 1,035 units. . Starts sre up in i the urban centres. The highest increases are in Victoria from 54 to 97 units and in Penticton from 8 to 25 units. / Gains in other centres are small, Fewer slarts occur in seven... centres, Vancouver starts declined from 541 to 1506 units./ The ycar-over-year. com- ' parisons/ are up. Starts are up 10 per cent ‘over the same month last year. For the first / two months, starts are up 6 per cent over last year. February's increase is too smail to cause a change in the trend. The trend value is down to 1,107 from 1,153 units. It.is very likely the ‘next trend ‘reading will also be down., March will mark the: first noticeable seasonal starts in: crease ‘this: year. The estimated seasonal pickup.i is about 20 per cent over Feb- ruary. | Forecast starts’ “tor March are 925 tnits up due entirely to seasonality. Monthly forecasts|‘lately have been . high, UN forecaster’s bias tends to run in streaks. The multiple-unit dwelling “starts trend continues . to decline. February multiples - Starts are down over January. Starts are low for the third consecutive month. All in- tended market categories are lower in February cacept cooperatives. Multiples Starts total 550 units during February, down from January's revised 725 units.. Compared to one year . agg Starts are dawn 5 per cent. ‘On a year-to-date basis / starts are up 2 per cent. La year got off to a slow start) ‘as well before picking up :, | Strongly. “{ February starts are located _ yin a few centres, Vancouver ‘Soe Housing Pago 66 Why! 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