_ The ‘Conference ‘Board of formances this y year (revised: Barc:
. from an October report), ~..
and asked these worthies -@
how they felt Canada would ~

perform: in. m1979.

_ Canada ,is- one ‘of those.
= ~ organizations - ‘that dot the
_ economic landscape like so
_ many snails on any beach in
eal northern France. .. ae

“Which i is: not to demean it,

. > of course. Heaven forfend. .

‘The. Board: gives

‘good:
a economics, after all.

’ But, like all : such ' ‘nop- |

_ profit, . economically-orien-

-™ ted outfits, it-has a felt need

~. to issue.reports. This is fine,

ce even. harmless. But. since

-some of us. have to read
these’ reports in a
. professional. cortext, we
'. often wish their sheer
volume could ‘be kept down

os toa full roar.

This is all by ¥ way - of in-
. troducing the Board’s latest-

.- opus, a ‘tome dedicated to

the preposition . that
economic forecasts are not.
_ always what they’re cracked
“ up-to be. The Board sur-
: veyed 18 economic per-

“a

Disco

compares.
‘forecast(s) made. by one J.
alleged.

3y

The news is snot good”

‘Those surveyed: revised
their prediction. for real
in“ gross national:

growth |
product (GNP) to three: ‘per
cent from 3.3 per cent. We
do not
with

Chretien; the
Minister ‘of Finance, ‘since

over the map, not once but
severaltimes.. ~

. Late last year “and earlier. .
this year, M. Chretien had a.

great deal of - difficulty in
deciding just how much real

‘growth we'd have in. 79.

First it was five per cent; that
got adjusted to 4.5 per cent;

then there were dark
mutterings. about four per
cent, and even darker

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CLYDE’S

; miutterings about 3.5. per.
“cent,

. course,
his predictions have been all ..

All © ‘the.- while, of

private sector were sticking

: to their guns — 3.5 per cent.

“And so yawn.

forecasters: in. the °

One cute point revolves  -
‘around unemployment. Last
".October™ ‘the Board’s con--
-sensus © was... that _unem-—
‘ployment this’ year” would
_ average 8. 9 per cent of the
labor force on a seasonally-—
-adjusted. basis. That has
besa scaled down t to.8. 4 per

. expecting
unemployment to at least. 8. 4

‘by John Belanger

‘know how this .
the,

cent. It: does not. seem to
bother anyone that . the
current rate .is "way ‘below

7 target at 7 9: per ‘cent.

Sic ‘transit forecastius, or

something.

“This ‘meatis the Board is
a bump’.
per cent by summer. This is
reasonable, mostly on ac-
count :.of how the labor

market will be flooded by
students. 7

\ Mind, this is to make the
optimistic assumption that

_the Board is right. It has

been wrong before. But it
has been right before, too.
The point is that as with all
economic .forecasts, the
truth’ probably
somewhere in the middle.

Which is not to say that

anyone should ‘split the

erence on. statistics, but.

is merely to point out that a

_ jaundiced eye is often more

effective than a rosy one

when viewing them.

The Board also noted that
the forecasters surveyed
were especially sensitive to
‘the reappearance of the
wage-price spiral, as if it
ever went away. This is
deemed to be the economy’s
biggest threat, which is
strange, but the forecasters

do not expect it to reappear,
- which is not. Much depends.

on what happens in the
Excited States of .Hamerica,
for much of our economic
performance is tied to the
American experience.

won't , mean.

lies -

My God, how's t that for a °

later this year —. which is

* widely . expected. — then
Canada’ can: ‘expect some ‘

repercussions. How. _ these

on ‘the Richter Scale is

something else’: ‘again. Our
guesstimate. is -that. they
much, = if

. This will” come. as a shock
to regular patrons; but this

‘space has recently come up

optimistic _ on the economy.
We are. not at. all as bearish

‘as we were six months ago.

This is: bécause. many of the
nasties we expected . to

happen (an 80-cent: dollar,

for example) simply did not
a Leane For which we have

eady. breathed. a _jour-
nalistic sigh of relief.

This recent attack “of
optimism does not mean we

‘are blindly “optimistic. It

means rather that Canada
has a trace more running
room than it did. The
national economy could still
have its style cramped by
unforeseen events and
trends.

But generally speaking —
things are looking up. ;

fresh, new and wonderful :
economic. cinsight!

eee The point. is that. if the |
» U.S. economy. slows . ‘down

_ - repercussions ‘will: measure —

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