AG - Wednesday, June 22, 1983 - North Shore News Keep in step The revelation that plumbers and pipe- fitters in the Nova Scotia construction in- dustry have got away with a four-year wage increase of 11% per year is a disturbing danger signal for Canada’s still fragile economic upturn. Recovery from the worst slump since the 1930s is only just now getting under way. It owes its start primarily to the sharp reduc- tion in inflation (today at a 10-year low) and interest rates over recent months. Some significant credit for this reduction must go to the federal and provincial governments for their “6-5” curbs on public sector pay hikes — which earlier had set too high a trend in overall wage settlements. But this modest progress could suffer a swift setback if double-digit settlements in the private sector became the new trendset- ters, despite inflation running at under 6%. One union after another would train its sights on such targets, pleading a “catch up” need following the recession. It won't work. The result at this early point is the recovery could only be to spark renew- ed inflation, accompanied by a renewed rise in interest rates. In turn, this would continue to discourage consumer spending and private sector expansion — both vital for the creation of more jobs. Meanwhile, the tendency for Canadian exports to price themselves out of their markets would be revived. There's only one way for Canadians to “catch up” from the ravages of the past two years: with restraint — and in step with one another. Saucy Goose Vancouver optician Arnie Freedman is getting nowhere with his plea to Judy Erola, federal minister for the status of women, for a grant to launch Men's Media Monitoring - a counterbalance to Media Watch, the federally-funded feminist vigilantes who keep tab on newspaper, radio and TV sex- ism. Sauce for the goose ($50,000 worth) ISN’T always sauce for gander - not if the goose has any say! FIER VOICE OF NORNTTH AND WHAT VANCE TER sunday news north shore ~ news 1139 Lonsdale Ave., North Vancouver, 8.C. V7M 2H4 Display Advertising Classitied Advertising Newsroom Circulation 980-0511 986-6222 085-2131 986-1337 Publisher Peter Speck Associate Publisher Edltor-in-chiet Advertising Director Roben Graham Noel Wright Tim Francis Personnel Director Claasified Director Mrs Bernt Hihad Circulation Director Isabelle Jennys Bran A Elis Production Director Office Manager Photography Manage: Chria Johnson Donna Grandy Terry Peters North Shore Mews toundod i 1 8G6U an an independant Community newapape: and quatiied under Scnbedute th Part tl Paragraph ll of the taceme Tan Act @m published each Wodnesday ang bunday by North Shore free Prose (id and distributed to aevory Goo on the North Shore Second Class Mat Rogistration Number 36665 Entire contents 1082 North Shore Free Prees Ltd All rights reserved Subscriptions North and Wost Varn ouver ratoo avaitablo on requonl $29) per year Matting Neo rempronmettity cc ergiterd bent care ote eve ortaaterrinh tee be scberagy PONE deat: CAQIES arte) prec Taree why te Peers) Ge ae MAT ENO aT vet pre COOMIp ares) Cry a tb emereg perc] VERIFIED C1 ULATION 64 450 Wednesday 64276 Sunday THIS PAPER IS RECYCLABLE By W. ROGER WORTH FOR THE ACADEMICS, economists, actuaries and government consultants, the catchall phrase “pension teform” has become a license to print money. The deep thinkers are the respected experts who get paid handsomely to subtly DONT WORRY MR.MINISTER...1TS PERFECTLY SAFE ... LT. SMURP THE PLANE MAINSTREAM CANADA ension reform af manage Statistics, telling us (in economic terms) how well off pensioners are, or conversely, that the elderly deserve a greater piece of the national economic pie. The contradictions, of course, are veiled in the technical jargon used by ex- perts in the field, as well as the philosophical bent of the terest group that is paying for the studies. Nevertheless, amid alli the economic soul searching, we are now involved in a relatively unpublicized pro- cess that will affect each and every Canadian: workers and businesses will either pay more (or less) in pension premiums, while some of the elderly may get more (or less) in benefits. So, far, discussions about the government-pushed pen- sion changes have mainly concerned the experts. Like a jury hearing debate between “expert” psychiatrists giving evidence for opposing sides in an in- ‘sanity trial, the government will eventually be forced to make a decision on the strength of opposing arguments: does the nation's pension system require fun- damental changes, minor changes or should it be left as itis? Clearly, Ottawa is seeking reform, and the business community has been forced to spend millions to prepare a response and participate in the debate. Here are some general questions that arise: Should people be forced to prepare for retirement, or should they be allowed to do it voluntarily? Should there be an economic “means” test to decide whether in- dividuals need more retire- ment money? Is it the government's or the worker's responsibility to rects YOU business, government or in- . save for old age? If one per- son is frugal, and another a spendthrift, through their working years, should governments maintain the spendthrift’s standards of liv- ing in old age? The endless list of questions goes to the very heart of our economic system, and the impact on both business and _ the general public will be far reaching. In fact, the outcome of the debate will affect the pocketbooks of virtually everyone in the country. Consider just one tiny ex- ample submitted to the Parliamentary Task Force on Pension Reform by the Candian Federation of In- depentent Business, which represents 64,000 smaller firms across the country. The Federation quite rightly points out that doubl- ing Canada Pension Plan/Quebec Pension Plan contributions (an option considered in a government discussion paper) would create great hardship for smaller firms. The problem: fully one- half of Canadian corpora- tions earn no profit in a typical year, let alone in a deep recession. So, if pension contribu- tions doubled, and _ losses soared, it is perhaps fair to suggest that a goodly propor- tion of those firms would simply close up shop. Even those that are making money would have profits slashed, CONTINUED ON PAGE A7 Awesome generation gap “GENERATION” is a word I've always found vaguely warm and reassuring. A measure of stability and respectability. Like when someone boasts “three generations of lawyers in the fami- ly.” Or claims to be “a fourth-generation Cana- dian’. Or “closes the generation gap” by being the perfect Dad. Alas, no more. Not since reading a recent article by Toronto Star science writer Pete Carey. Its suddenly turned “generation” into one of the most ominous words in the dictionary. Mr. Carey describes the race now on between the U.S. and Japan to perfect a monster called “the fifth gencration computer” Con. ception has already been completed The estimated turtii date is 1992 barring a nuclear miscarnage just nine yoars down the road In case you're a little hazy about the computer family saga the first generation in the later 1950s used glowing vacuum tubes and whirring spools and needed space the size of a flavor tennis court The and thind geberabons, running first on transistors and tegrated circuits gressively more Compact The fourth generation animated by sc cond then on in grew pro Micra processors and memory chips as what you buy today from Radio Shack for $700 and play with on the colfec table DIFFERENT CAT Despite thas spee tacular progress in down sizing to day's computers sull basical ly process only numbers and facts - fed into them by a human programmer tapping a typewriter-style keyboard Their fifth generaton pro gency will be a cat of a very different breed Among miscellancous refinements, you ll be able to talk Coat instead of pounding your message home on tts keyboard What's morc. it will be able to answer you back with a voice of tts own In some cases it will also have an cye that it can keep on you) But) that’s starters The mind bogghng evolu ionary step with the fifth gencrabon computer they re working on now inl Dokyo and Menlo Park. Califoroia will be ats ability to THINK To REASON human brain “Inferential loga’ and ‘knowledge base capacity are the techmeal buzz words flor this awesome ment yust for To mimic the develop As oa simple crxaample of how 4 works fecding facts machine All Salmon are fish [he Imagine tato the fash two swim difference wath the Mark S modelis thatit won t merely store Chose two facts mits memory You lH also be focus Noel Wright able to program tt fo inter relate the two facts and infer a third fact from them all on us hittle own In this case the machine will squawk back at you “Salmon swim” BILLION ANSWERS In other words the fifth gencration computer willaot only memorize straight facts Howl also store cles trontecally the relatieans between things in the world (cg fish and swim and salmon) Within 1O years the Japanese are reportedly aim ing oto develop two track systems of Chas kind that wall handle tens of thousands of inference rules about the relations between things plus 100 milhon facts. Theoretically, such a system would be able to store the entire En cyclopedia Britannica and then manipulate its knowledge to form rational conclusions. A modest Japanese prototype is due to appear as carly as next year This is the challenge now being taken up by the US computer industry, which pioneered = artificial in telhgence (Al) machine a couple of years ago Al the risk of being dubb ed an enemy of progress | cant help hoping that a whole lot) of blown fuses delay the US Japanese race to subsugate my yercy cells to a bundle of chips lt would be depressing enough to contemplate a machine that merely thinks and reasons as cfficiently as oneself But) the one theyre shooting for today will also be capable of producing one billton logical answers per second while J/m stl taking anything from) five minutes fo five days just to understand the question That. of course will be the end Fifth generation electron whiz kids will take over the world reducing poor old hamo saptens to the intellec tual equivalent of an amoeba Tell me semeone thatits only oa sctenoce fae tion nightmare’