———————X=[{T> Perilous predi Calling local weather is an inexact science Bot Mackin News Reporter bmackin@nsnews.com MANY people migrate to southwest- ern British Columbia from other parts of North America to ese 9c unfriendly weather — be it chilly or humid. But they may not be prepared for some of the continent’s most unpredictable weather. That unpredictability is what attracted Roland Stull. Stull was a professor at the University of Wisconsin. for 16 years until moving to the University of B.C.’s atumospheric science pro- gram in 1995. “I found people had a need to improve the forecasts,” said Stull, a native of Baltimore who was a meteorologist for the U.S. Air Force in Omaha, Neb. “ thought it was a chal- lenge because of the topography and the coastline and the Pacific Ocean. The whole thing that cap- tured my interest was the challenge and the North Shore is one of ‘the more challenging places.” The peaks and val- Jeys of North and West Vancouver are sandwiched between the waters of Howe Sound and Indian “Arm. The land mass has such a great influ- ence on the south coast’s climate that Stull says it’s the ideal “living laboratory” for his stu- dents. Weather forecasters rely on sophisticated computer programs, which they call numerical models. Starting with the current weather observations, they use complex equations based on physics to produce a forecast. The most accurate, up-to-date measurements are needed, otherwise the outcome may be unreli- able. But much of B.C.’s weathee comes from the west, over the Pacific Ocean where obser- vation stations are limited. “From my experience, the quality of the numerical weather forecasts here in the south coast of B.C. is worse than anywhere else in Canada or North America even,” Stull said. “For example, in the Toronto area and places in the prairie provinces, in the winter time — which is the most difficult time to forecast the weather — they can pet a good quality weath- er forecast out to three days. Around here in the winter we can get a good quality weather forecast out to half a day.” It’s not Environment Canada’s faulc because it does the best with its resources, said Stull, who often collaborates with the govern- ment agency. UBC observes weather and issues its own UBC atmospheric science profes- sor Roland Stull. CATEGORY MOST Rain ina day MOST Snowfall ina day HIGHEST Temperature LOWEST Temperature . ae te) : ip. : Joye tg Me, neweather recorded of the North's! LOCATION Upper Lynn Grouse Mountain Grouse Mountain Grouse Mountain SUNDAY FOCUS tions "E67 7 ely t NEWS photo Mike Wakefield BRYAN Phenix, a data acquisition specialist for Meteorological Service of Canada, raises a weighing precipitation gauge at the West Vancouver weather station. The gauge measured more than 260 cm of rain and snow in 1999. forecasts throughout the province. Its high res- olution observations in the Lower Mainland end southern Vancouver Island are done in three kilometre-by-three kilometre squares. Stull has applied for funding to increase resow- tion to | km by 1 km province-wide to further analyze the effects of nountains and valleys. UBC provides some of its information to weather-impacted sectors like logging compa- nies, utilities, shipping companies, BC Fernes, local ski and snowboard areas and even the consortium rebuilding the Lions Gate Bridge. Intense winds in the First Narrows could pose a danger to workers and force delays in the pro- rore throvigh 10.1990" : READING DATE January 18, 1969 170.2 mm February 24, 1982 57.0.cm September 3, 1988 32°C 10°C December 29, 1990 ject. What makes the North Shore so appealing for meteorologists, Stull says, is a basic tenet of geography and atmospheric science. Winds from the south or southwest collide with the North Shore mountains. The air rises and cools, Water vapour condenses into cloud form and produce precipitation. Last year, more than 2,600 millimetres (or over eight feet) of precipitation was recorded at the West Vancouver automated weather station, just below the Cypress Bow! exit from the Upper Sve Topagraply page 13 Sunday. April 2, 2000 - North Shore News ~ 3 Weather watchers DON Tatar peers through a window of a southwest Marine Drive office tower at Vancouver International Airport. That's where a weather station first opened in 1935, 30 years after the city’s first weather office opened in Kitsilano. “We're kind of like doctors here,” says the Environment Canada meteorologist. “You do an analysis, vou do a diagnosis, then a progno- sis.” Environment Canada’s Pacific Weather Centre in Vancouver's Marpole neighbourhood has a staff of 24 and handles forecasts for coastal B.C. and the Lower -Aainland. In many ways it resembles a hospital ward with its con- stant activity and expensive equipment and instruments. A similar facility in Kelowna han- dles the Interior and the Yukon ‘ferritory. Both are reliant on computers and have been since the 1960s when the federal weather service cen- tralized its computer analysis in Montreal. Besides the com- puter models, satellite imagery and Doppler radar also give fore- casters an insight into what will happen in tie days to come. Computer-gener- ated weather maps are analyzed every six hours; a marine specialist does it every three hours to keep track of the latest Pacific wind patterns. When the information contained in the variety of computer models considered by meteorologists conflicts, it’s up to a supervising meteorologist to decide what direction to take. Forecasts are written and issued three times a day at 5 a.m., 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. The latter time is the local equivalent of Greenwich Mean Time, an international standard for weather teporting mandated by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization. Berween 500 and 600 unscheduled weather warnings are issued yearly by the weather office. Of those, 60% are for heavy winds. Snow and rain account for 15% of warnings, each. . Environment Canada issues 900,000 fore- casts a year across the land. Many are provided free via recorded phone lines, VHF radio or the Internet. Specialized services, like a 1-900 not- line to chat with a meteorologist, are part of cost-recovery measures instituted by the feder- al government. The weather service runs on a $220-million annuai, budget and employs 1,628 people nationwide, including 700 meteorologists or climatolegists. In the next eight years, up to a third of the scientific and technical workforce will be retiring, so efforts to recruit new fore- casters at Cancdian universities are accelerating. Environment Canada is hoping its SkyWatchers elementary school program can cultivate the PACIFIC Weather Centre meteorol- ogist Don Tatar. See Weather page 13 West Vancouver aveather statistiés for l 98 MEAN MONTHLY MAXIMUM Owl Bee 4A MEAN MONTHLY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TOTAL MONTHLY PRECIPITATION & (am) io 222 \ Jan Feb Mar Apr May J (°C) 7 = a os oe _ ; Pn orfins rg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun J ea eProps Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Nov Dec 99 8. Aug Sep Oct