AUTOMOTIVES

Study shows elderly
drivers experience
fewer car accidents

THE PROPORTION of Canadian drivers over 65 years
of age is now estimated at !1.4% of the population, but by
the year 2025, that proportion is expected to increase to
165). As the number of elderly drivers increases, so does
concern over their driving skills.

Do elderly drivers pose a
greater risk to highway safety than
younger drivers? According to
Mary Chipman, a professor in the
department of preventive medi-
cine and bio statistics in the Uni-
versity of Toronto, drivers be-
tween the ages of 60 and 79 have
fewer accidents (per 100 drivers)
than drivers between 25 and 59.

Speaking at the Canadian
Multidisciplinary Road Safety
Conference held at the University
of British Columbia in June,
Chipman used figures from a 1988
Ontario Driver Exposure Survey
that showed a pattern of decreas-
ing crash: rates for increasing age.
The study showed that drivers ag-
ed 60 to.79 have a crash risk per
kilometre that is lower than
average.

The survey was stratified by
age, gender and region, with four
age groups, 25-59, 60-69, 70-79
and 80 and over. Of 3,686
respondents, 1,760 were aged 60
or more. For each trip taken dur-
ing a three-day interval, drivers

_ 44 Older drivers are
better able to choose
their environment,
driving only in good
weather, or during
daylight hours, for
example, than other
drivers and so avoid

__ the problems and
_ possible increase in
‘hazard associated

with them. 99

recorded the time.and odometer
reading at the beginning and end
of the trip and neted whether or
not they were bothered by slippery
roads, heavy traffic, and so on.
Daily times and distances were
computed for each driver to
estimate and compare risk ex-
posure, and combined with crash
Statistics to estimate crash rates.

The lower crash rates for
drivers 60-79 was attributed to a
number of factors. ‘‘These (older)
drivers are better able to choose
their environment, driving only in
good weather, or during daylight
hours, for example, than other
drivers and so avoid the problems
and possible increase in hazard
associated with them,’’ explained
Chipman. in addition, ‘‘...people
now reaching the age of 65 have
held a driver’s licence for much of
their adult lives, and may expect
to be ‘motor wise.’ °°

In addition, elderly drivers tend
to make fewer trips than drivers
aged 25 to 60, exposing themselves
to fewer hazards and risks. How-
ever, this practice turns out to be
a double-edged sword. Although
rates cf collision per 100 drivers
show a steady decline as age in-
creases, crash rates per 100,000
kilometres driven and per 1,000
days increased for drivers 70-79,

Greg
Wilson

AUTOMOTION

relative to drivers aged 25-59 or
60-69. “This may be explained in
part by the practice of older
drivers to avoid limited access
highways (freeways), and to drive
at slower speeds in ‘ess streamlin-
ed, more hazardous, but more
familics road environments,’’ ex-
plains Chipman.

The Ontario study indicated
that drivers over 80 years of age
are most at risk. ‘‘The drivers
over 80 have, in general, a higher
rate of traffic crash by all three
measures of risk we have used,’’

said Chipman.

Collision rates (per 100 drivers)
for male drivers over 80 were 17%
and 37% higher than male drivers
60-69 and 70-79 respectively. Col-
lision rates (per 100 drivers) for
female drivers over 80 were 61%
higher than female drivers aged
25-59, and 80% and 88% higher
than female drivers 60-69 and
70-79 respectively.

“In risk terms, these drivers’
chances of being involved in a
crash appear impressive; as indi-
viduals, they and their families
migh: well be concerned, especial-
ly if further werk ... confirms
these data,’’ warns Professor
Chipman.

However, Chipman feels that
the risk 10 public health is
minimal. ‘‘The numbers of drivers
maintaining a licence past the age
of 20, in the face of stringent
(licensing) requirements, and the
amount of driving they do ... are
less than any of the groups con-
sidered.’’

And there is reason to believe
that the conclusions about drivers
over 80 in the Ontario study may
not be entirely accurate. The
number of drivers 80 and older
contributing to the survey was
much smaller than othet groups,
making estimates less precise.

Chipman admits that the study
of older drivers tacks researchers
with first-hand experience. *‘Most
of us have been young drivers, or
new drivers, or both at the same
time, but few of us are old
enough to know what being an
80-year-old driver is really like.”

Further information about el-
derly drivers can be obtained from
A study of the Amount and Type
of Driving Done by Ontaric
Drivers draft report to the Ontario
Ministry of Transportation (1991),
by Smiley, Lee-Gosselin, Chip-
man, and McGregor; and from
The Safety of Elderly Drivers
(1990) by J.P. Rothe.

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