_ Canada’s big five banks are.
- optimistic about the general
- business. outlook for 1979,

' based on the trends: being
shown: by key indicators of

_ the country’s ‘economic
activity. a an
The Royal Bank's

’ ‘Trendicator’ increased at an
estimated annual rate of 3.1
per cent during the final.
quarter of 1978, to hit an all-.
time high for the index of

104.27. The previous peak -

was five years ago during the
final quarter of 1973.

“The latest advance in —

‘Trendicator’ is en-
couraging,” said Dr. R.W
Baguley, senior economist
with the Royal Bank. He
noted that the index has now
risen for three consecutive

. quarters, the longest
sustained increase since
1975.

“During that . year,

“‘Trendicator's’ four quarterly
increases correctly signalled
above-average* economic
growth in 1976, when the
real Gross National Product
climbed by 5.5 per cent,”
Baguley said.

‘Trendicator’ is a com-
posite index of 11 leading
indicators which historically
has led changes in the rate of
real economic activity by an
average of nine months
during an upturn.

The latest series of upward
movements of .the index
would normally presage a
healthy economic § per-
formance” in Canada this
year. However, a

Metric to

Among other factors
likely to boost your groceries
bill still higher during the
next 12 months is the switch
to metric — scheduled to be
carried through in the food
industry within a year.

Currently, food shoppers
are being subjected to the
so-called “soft conversion”
stage, with product weights
and volumes shown in both
metric and
measures. But from January
1, 1980, the “hard con-
version” phase: will take over
— meaning that bulk
products like meat will
suddenly be switched ex-
clusively to kilos.

It's reported that this part
of Ottawa's metric program
will probably cost the retail
food industry up to $100
million — the additional cost
being passed on to con-
sumers.

Business
Opportunity

Co with product that rival
McDonald's in scope, 1req.
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worldwide

Must

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The a nalysts at ‘one of

imperial

te Rn) ee chai 7m ae pane i a vr. ott

: Page 33, February 21, 1979 - North Shore News

>

a
We
Wi
_
YY,

ROYAL BANK TRENDICATOR

Composite Iridex of Leading indicators

1952 to Rate

i:
mC
WWD

G

iy

SSS
Peak =
Trough! Yo NS
TOF ~S . NE

Y

ih
N

Os

ee

prospective economic
slowdown in the United
States during the latter half
of 1979 could slow Canada’s

economic growth this year,

the report warned.

“Our current forecast for
Canada is that the real GNP
will increase by 3.2 per cent
this year — nearly the same
as last year's estimated
increase of 3.5 per cent,”
Baguley said. -

_

‘Trendicator’ advanced on

a broad front during the

quarter with nine com-.
ponents registering increases.
The only drops were below-

average declines estimated
for corporate pre-tax profits
and ratio of price | to unit

aa

.Below-average :

labor costs, - another
‘measurement of profit
margins.

“The slight drop in these
two leading indicators in the
fourth quarter
unforeseen,” said Dr. Steve
Chow, economist with the
Royal Bank. “We have been
‘forecasting a softening in
profit gains in 1979, relative

” to the high increases of 1977

and 1978, for the past
several months.”

On the -plus side, nine
components posted gains.
increases
were recordéd~ for~ urban

. housing starts and estimated

for - both the number of
residential building permits
issued and the deflated value

Wy
“‘“*:

yy
MMU,

—
\

=
__ 4
YY)

iS
a.

Ny

4
AAV ILLES ES Lg

an a ies is
ele
mh aL

was not-

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push up food prices?

“Food | retailers are un-
derstandably nervous about
the prospect. They claim
they cannot absorb such a
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also fear they will
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whipping boys when the
price of products measured
in kilos and litres only goes
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Main reason for the extra
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CONTINUED ON PAGE 34

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