When i was a boy, I used to think about the : would double the current

“_

future with considerable pleasure. Like most of my
generation I was programmed to believe that the

natural order of things

was to get better and

better. Twenty-eight years ago even George
Orwell’s spine-tingling ‘‘1984’’ failed to dampen

mv enthusiasm for tomorrow. Those, of course,

sawn y

enn Cae —~

were the innocent, carefree days before the word
*‘futurism’’ had been invented. We thought. we

thought.

Over the past 10 years,
however, the born optimists
among us have been taking
some hard knocks fromanew
breed of acaderiic high
priests known as_ futurists.
Spearheaded by characters
like Vance Packard. (who

warned us to stop consum- ‘j
McLuhan |

ing), Marshall
(who told us to stop reading
and writing) and Alvin
Toffler (whose
Shock’’ made sensitive souls

want to stop...period), futur-
‘ism has hecome one of our

en oe a

‘major growth industries.

Generous supplies of am-
munition for the prophets of
doom have been provided by
such items as the missile.
submarine, the neutron
bomb, genetics engineering,
the ecology crisis, the energy
crunch, soaring unemploy-
ment, roaring inflation and a
spate of Hollywood contrib-
utions under such titles as
**Dr. Strangelove,” ““Earth-
quake,”’ ““Towering inferno”’
and ‘‘Star Wars’’—most of .
them suggesting that tomor-
row may have to be cancelled
altogether due to circum-
stances beyond the control of
the management.

UNEXPECTED SUNSHINE

It was like a breath of fresh
spring air, therefore, to read,
in The Financial Post, Robert
Steklasa’s account of the
recent confernece of some
600 professional futurists at .
Queen’s University, King-
ston, Ont.

Although they found a few
small clouds on tomorrow’s
horizon, they discovered an
unexpected amount of sun-
shine too.

Energy shortages will be
temporary, according to
Norman Macrae, deputy
editor of the London Econo-
mist, because of the devel-
opment of new _ energy
technology such as fusion.
This, he pointed out, would
lead at the same time to an
extraordinary increase in
killing power—‘‘it will be
easier for some fanatic to
frizzle a country.”’

Mr. Macrae saw two
possible spin-offs from that

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situation. One would be a
drawing together of the U.S.
and the Soviet Union to take
joint action against any
smaller nation threatening to —
step out of line in a fit of
thermonuclear enthusiasm.

The other would be a
crackdown on the nut next
‘door who may be tempted
by the possibilities of an
atom bomb in a suitcase.

tos

**We wiili be iess toierant
of kooks,’’ he said. ‘‘There
will be a greater check on
individuals, and attitudes to
brain therapy may change.’’

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The scientific fortune-tel-
lers also devoted consider-
able attention to the future of
the automobile. If they’re
right, you'll be relieved to
hear that it’s going to be
around for quite a time yet.

Gasoline rationing, higher.
gasoline taxes and _ the
development of energy-eff-
icient transport systems are
all on the cards for the next
quarter of a century. Gaso-

line consumption may. have _

to be cut by 40 per
cent—leading to the death of
the large car and an

economic slump for several
years fron’ 1985 onward,
when gasoline will cost $1.50
a gallon.

Even so ‘‘new car sales
would remain ‘strong
throughout this. period and

for appointments

major study of the future of

‘m.p.g.
_knew where we were going and we liked what we 7
sunshine. Speakers at the

i sumption by replacing mach-

_ ple,

would break it down chemi-
cally and-excrete such things
-.as nickel. Much more ecc-

the fact that the next-gener-

line in the importance of

“audience about the possibil-

_in making it happen. And

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levels by 2000,’’ said Richard
Clark, who is working on a

the automobile for the
Transportation Development
Agency in Ottawa. By that
time gasoline would bz $2 a

wallan. and new cars wonld be

Bev. Lael
delivering a minimum of 4

AAD By

After: -that it was mostly

conference predicted, among
other things:

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me
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Le
{hy
ivwe

con-
inery in certain cases. In the
mining indusiry, for exam-

-such bacteria, when
mixed with crushed ore,

nomical. and non-polluting
than - present mechanical
methods, say the boffins.

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%A faniastic improvement
in world productivity—due to

ation. labor force in Asia,
numbering hundreds of mil-
lions, will be literate and
well-educated.

eAnd—giory be!—a dec-

government. The key ques-
tions, said futurist Macrae,
will be to find the quickest

labor-saving technology to do

any given job, together with
those best able to provide it;
this, he forecast, will mean
the return of certain public
services to the private sector.
Are you listening, Post-
master Blais?

SELF-FULFILLING

All in ali an upbeat
gathering—sugegesting that
the future, after all, may be a
good deal more tolerable
than the gloomsters would
have us believe. One of the
more’ interesting comments
came from Richard Henshel
of the University of Western
Ontario, who warned his

ity of their predictions
becoming self-fulfilling
prophesies. - ee.

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In other words, if enough
futurists believe. strongly
enough in a bright tomorrow,

they might actually succeed — Medium Firm

vice versa, of course.

If Henshel is right, we
should encourage the King-
ston breed of crystal-gazers
to get together and do their
thing ‘again as often as
‘possible. “With 1984 only
seven years away, there’s no
time to lose!

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