EPENDING on whom you talk to, the stock market All of these comments by investment dealers, of course, add up to the same thing: No one knows where the stock market is headed because the many normal factors which influence the market are in a state of flux or at unusual levels — and the situation is compounded by impending political developments of a major nature. LACK OF CONFIDENCE First, there is a con- spicuous lack of public con- fidence in the economy and there is nervousness that in- terest rates are moving higher. The very large federal budget deficits in Canada and in the United States are cause for concern. Canada lacks the encouraging economic statistics which are apparent in the U.S., and which mark a distinct move out of a depression and into better times. And this ‘‘ball of wax’’ is made more com- plex by the coming election in November in the U.S. and the certainty of an election in this country later this year or early next year. In the muddled economic/political climate, little wonder the people who deal in stocks and bonds can- ngt put a finger on the stock market’s probable direction. MARKING TIME We canvassed some of the local investment houses to gather opinions as to what stage the market is at and where it is headed. Rick Sales, research direc- tor of Odlum Brown, suggested: “‘Right now the market is trying to make up its mind which way to go. it’s mark- ing time.”’ Sales notes that the strong showing of Democratic presidential candidate Gary Hart is becoming a factor in the stock market. “If the Democrats are elected it will not be good for the (U.S.) deficit nor interest rates.”" As for the immediate currently is ‘*‘going sideways’’...‘‘trendless’’...‘‘uncertain’’ **can’t make up its mind.’’ future, ‘‘if the market is go- ing to rise it will be toward the end of the year; say, in the last quarter of the year,”’ Sales believes.>— --— ——"— ~~ TRENDLESS Tom Beaulieu, resident director of Pain Webber, observes: ee money talks Bill Ryan **At this point the market doesn’t know which way it is heading. It is trendless. There is the spectre of higher in- terest rates. There is money on the sideline (money available and ready for in- vestment) and it is waiting for a trend to develop.”’ Beaulieu, however, does not think the impending U.S. election ‘“‘is affecting the market at all. Most people think that Reagan will be re- elected.’’ He also thinks the market is discounting higher interest rates. Generally, of course, the market will move with in- terest rates; if they remain the same, the market will im- prove; if they go down, there will be a ‘‘far better’’ market. U.S. POLITICS James Ridout, assistant manager of Richardson Canada looks “THERE 1S no sign of weakness for the manufac. turing industries which con- tinuc to build on the substan- tial gains during 1983) in employment (6%), produc. tivity (11%), production (17%), and profits (80%), said the Canadian Manufac turcrs’ Association in its Manufacturing Monitor “Yet our substantial progress in recovery has not produced the enthustasm which might have been anticipated **Even if the recovery were to lose its steam, we will again outperform Furopce, which expects [wo per cent growth or tess this year Canada, along with the US and Pacific Basin countries, is) clearly showing | strom growth in 1984 "" The CMA emphasized in the Monitor that exports and increased business spending are the key to continued recovery even though con sumer confidence and finan- cial standing are in good shape. ‘‘Perhaps when the feeling of scepticism begins to subside we will find more investors ready to initiate the new projects that wall drive Canada’s economic growth in the 1980s and beyond In creased confidence in Canada's future will lead 22) West Esplanade (BC Rad Building) N Vancouver GOLD Is on the move! Don’t miss it this time. For more information on Gold Stocks YORKTON SECURITIES INC. Greenshields, takes a_ dif- ferent view of the influence of U.S. politics on Canadian stock markets. ‘““At present the stock market is definitely condi- tioned by New York (the New York Stock Exchange). It (the Canadian market) is go- ing sideways. This is a correction. Tote But ‘‘the way the New York market goes is the way we will go; that is, we will go in a similar’’ direction. As to the future? ‘‘We look for it (the market) to pick up later in the year; perhaps in the middle of the year. It could go lower by summer, but not much lower,’’ Ridout said. UNCERTAINTY While the first three observers were referring to the Toronto and Montreal Stock Exhcanges, Jack Alter, manager of the North Van- couver office of Wolverton, confined his remarks to the Vancouver Stock Exchange (VSE) where venture and more speculative stocks predominate. ‘‘There is uncertainty about interest rates. And there is a lack of con- fidence,’’ he felt. ‘‘Most (speculators) are holding back.”’ However, the gold stocks are holding steady, he said. ‘*It’s a high risk situation.’* In a broader vein, Alter said: ‘‘We foresee a bullish gold market toward the se- cond half (April-June). The U.S. election in November is a factor. ‘We expect U.S. interest rates to escalate after the election, and 1985 will likely be a higher inflation year.’’ These opinions were voiced before the market surge early this week. FRUSTRATING Against this background it is not surprising that the stock market is confusing and frustrating many in- vestors. However, if you have been watching a par- ticular stock and it is at, or nearing, the low point at which you consider it is a **buy’’ you should be prepar- ing to enter or re-enter the market. good more consumers to mobilize dormant savings, and more businessmen to carry increas- ed stocks that reflect’ the belief that current strong sales can be sustained. 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Our real estate advertisers will have their ads right tn front of them — and available for ‘drop-in’ clients as well. Each Friday edition will be delivered free to North Shore businesses, to high pedestrian traffic areas (hotels, neigh- borhood pubs, recreation and fimess centres, tennis clubs, acht clubs, country clubs, iodges, high schools and more), and will be available for sale in 95 vendor boxes and newsstands (the majority on the North Shore). The Friday News is a realtor's dream. Call me today and I'll give you the whole story about this unique marketing opportunity. Tim Francis Advertising Director 980-0511 TOOK VINEE OF NOWTH Ale WHAT YANROOUVER “sunday news north shore news 1139 Lansdale Avenue, North Vancouver 3 ( V7M 2114